The Waugh Model

The Waugh Model (the Model) is an advanced mathematical model for calculating:
  • ■ the supply of social rented accommodation, and;
  • ■ how much temporary accommodation may be required for a local authority to discharge its duties under homelessness legislation, and;
  • ■ how much new build may be required for homelessness lets to account for no more than some percentage of all lets.
The Scottish Government used the Waugh Model to assess local authorities capacity to meet the 2012 target. It helped inform the allocation of Affordable Housing Investment Programme resources for 2009-10. Local authorities used the Model to advise on temporary accommodation requirements and quotas for homelessness lettings.

The Model works at the geography at which data sources are available. For Scotland the geography used was the 32 local authority areas. Sub-local authority level analysis could be performed if data is available for each sub-area.

The Model does not project the overall need for social housing (like the Bramley Model). It takes likely levels of social rented new build activity, stock turnover rates and the impact of regeneration programmes to project the availability of social rented accommodation in a local authority (LA) area. It also looks at the impact of lettings on the local authority’s homelessness service. In essence, the Model projects future demand for temporary accommodation using a social rented stock and lettings projection model plus a homelessness system model.

The Waugh Model can also be used to determine the amount of new build required in each area to ensure that homeless lets account for no more than, say, 60% of all social lets.

Scottish Government Information:

Background to the Waugh Model (opens a pdf document)